Markets
Analysis of prediction market events, odds movements, and market dynamics.
16 articles
Iran War End: Polymarket Prices Surge on Trump Ceasefire Talks
Trump's five-day strike pause sent $778K flooding into this market in 24 hours—but the price structure reveals traders expect negotiations to drag well past March.
Warsh at 94¢ Looks Like a Lock. The DOJ Probe Says Otherwise.
Polymarket prices Kevin Warsh at 94% to be confirmed as Fed Chair, but a DOJ investigation, a Republican senator's blockade, and no scheduled hearing suggest the 6¢ No side is underpriced.
Cornyn Wins Texas Senate Primary: Polymarket's $12M Bet
Cornyn edged Paxton by just 1.2 points — but the prediction market had him at 60.5¢ on election day. Here's what the $12M market got right and wrong.
Finland Dominates Eurovision 2026 Odds on Polymarket
Finland at 39¢ commands more implied probability than the next four contenders combined—but $18.7M in volume across 37 countries hides a brutal liquidity trap.
Netanyahu Exit Odds Surge on Polymarket Amid War and Death Rumors
$9.28M traded in 24 hours — 87% of all-time volume — as viral death hoaxes and a real Iran war collide to reprice Netanyahu's political survival.
Japan vs Venezuela WBC: Polymarket Prices an 88% Rout
$1.1M flooded this market in 24 hours, but $16K in remaining liquidity means the price is now frozen in amber — locked at 88% with no room to move.
Oscars 2026 Best Picture: Polymarket Bets $33M on Tonight's Winner
One Battle After Another commands 76.5¢ but Sinners at 19.5¢ has generated nearly as much volume — the gap between price and conviction is smaller than it looks.
Wizards-Celtics Polymarket: Why $1M Bet a 5% Underdog
$1.07M flowed into a 5.3% moneyline, dwarfing every prop and spread market combined. The volume-to-probability ratio screams something beyond rational wagering.
Aurora vs Astralis: Polymarket's $1.8M CS2 Bet Decoded
The match is already over — and the market data tells the story of a massive live-betting swing that caught Astralis backers off guard.
Polymarket Prices 42% Odds US Forces Enter Iran by March 31
$8.7M wagered on March 31 at 42¢, but only $506K in liquidity — a single $100K order could swing implied probability by double digits.
US-Iran Ceasefire Odds on Polymarket: What $26M Says
The market already expired $13.2M in losing bets on early deadlines — and $2.2M in fresh daily volume says traders are doubling down on April.
Crude Oil Above $120? Polymarket Bets $29M on a March Spike
Polymarket prices a coin-flip on $120 oil by month's end — but $4.67M in volume on the $200 strike reveals a market bracing for a geopolitical detonation.
Bitcoin March 2026 Price Market: Polymarket's $42M Bet Decoded
$12M in volume on the $150K strike at 0.4¢ odds — nearly 30% of all volume chasing a sub-1% outcome. The lottery ticket trade dwarfs the real signal.
2028 Presidential Election Polymarket: $401M Bet, 3 Real Contenders
Strip out the LeBron and Kardashian noise: only $23M in volume backs the three candidates the market actually prices above 10%. The 'real' 2028 race is far thinner than the headline number suggests.
2028 GOP Nominee on Polymarket: $408M Bet, Two-Horse Race
Two-thirds of smart money concentrates on Vance and Rubio, but $200M+ in volume sits on candidates priced below 2¢. Here's what that split reveals.
Gavin Newsom Commands 24% in Polymarket's $822M 2028 Dem Primary
California's governor leads a scattered field where AOC trades at 8.6% and Oprah has attracted $39M in volume despite 0.7% odds.