Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
28%
No probability
72%
Total volume
$1.8 million
24-hour volume
$449K
Closing date
April 21, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?"?

Traders currently give this a 28% chance of Yes and 72% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?"?

This market has seen $1.8 million in total trading volume, with $449K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 21, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 5 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 23% to 28%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
Polymarket
ACTIVEPolitics

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

$1.8M Vol$449.1K 24h$82.8K Liq

My Positions

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Resolution Details

Created AtApr 8, 2026, 10:52 AM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?"?

Traders currently give this a 28% chance of Yes and 72% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?"?

This market has seen $1.8 million in total trading volume, with $449K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 21, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 5 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 23% to 28%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.