Claude 5 released by…? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Claude 5 released by…?"?

There are 9 active prediction markets available for "Claude 5 released by…?", with $2.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "February 28, 2026" with $1.0 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 0%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Claude 5 released by…?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTAI

Claude 5 released by…?

$2.80M Vol$149.56K 24h$76.57K Liq3 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
April 30, 2026
10%↘15.5%24h$844.42K
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
May 31, 2026
28%↘2.5%1h↘15.0%24h$233.21K
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
June 30, 2026
49%↗2.5%1h↗2.5%24h$109.63K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Claude 5 released by…?"?

There are 9 active prediction markets available for "Claude 5 released by…?", with $2.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "February 28, 2026" with $1.0 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 0%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Claude 5 released by…?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.