Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
0%
No probability
100%
Total volume
$52K
Closing date
February 6, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the result for "Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.

Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?
RESOLVEDAI

Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?

$52.1K Vol↘ 0.1% 24h
Market closed — no longer accepting trades

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Resolution Details

Created AtAug 7, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

FAQ

What was the result for "Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.