Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
13%
No probability
87%
Total volume
$732K
24-hour volume
$64K
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

Traders currently give this a 13% chance of Yes and 87% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

This market has seen $732K in total trading volume, with $64K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 13% to 13%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
ACTIVEPolitics

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

$731.7K Vol$64.4K 24h$71.5K Liq 0.3% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtNov 4, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

Traders currently give this a 13% chance of Yes and 87% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

This market has seen $732K in total trading volume, with $64K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 13% to 13%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.