Will US withdraw from NATO by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?"?

There are 2 active prediction markets available for "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?", with $2.9 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 30" with $2.1 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 2%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

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Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$2.86M Vol$298.61K 24h$358.36K Liq2 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
April 30
1.6%↘0.1%1h↘0.9%24h$2.13M
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
December 31
13.2%↗0.3%1h↗0.5%24h$730.65K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?"?

There are 2 active prediction markets available for "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?", with $2.9 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 30" with $2.1 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 2%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.