Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
3%
No probability
98%
Total volume
$440K
24-hour volume
$881
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?"?

Traders currently give this a 3% chance of Yes and 98% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?"?

This market has seen $440K in total trading volume, with $881 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
ACTIVEScience

Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?

$440.3K Vol$881 24h$22.9K Liq

My Positions

Loading orderbook...
Loading trades...

Market Talks

Resolution Details

Created AtNov 12, 2025, 1:24 PM ET

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?"?

Traders currently give this a 3% chance of Yes and 98% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?"?

This market has seen $440K in total trading volume, with $881 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.