Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?"?

There are 6 active prediction markets available for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?", with $2.5 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "5" with $683K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 1%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTSCIENCE

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

$2.52M Vol$30.90K 24h$167.43K Liq6 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
2
52%↗0.5%24h$271.05K
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
1
31%↗1.5%1h↗2.0%24h$367.35K
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
4
6.8%↘0.9%24h$374.53K
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
3
6%↗0.3%1h↘0.5%24h$378.81K
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
6 or lower
2.7%↘0.1%1h$440.25K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?"?

There are 6 active prediction markets available for "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?", with $2.5 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "5" with $683K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 1%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.