Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
0%
No probability
100%
Total volume
$1.7 million
24-hour volume
$45K
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 0% chance of Yes and 100% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

This market has seen $1.7 million in total trading volume, with $45K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
ACTIVEBusiness

Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

$1.7M Vol$45.1K 24h$177.2K Liq

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Resolution Details

Created AtSep 29, 2025, 9:23 AM ET

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 0% chance of Yes and 100% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

This market has seen $1.7 million in total trading volume, with $45K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.