How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?"?

There are 13 active prediction markets available for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", with $17.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "0 (0 bps)" with $3.0 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 40%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTBUSINESS

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$17.84M Vol$383.92K 24h$1.33M Liq13 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
40.8%↗0.6%1h↗4.5%24h$3.03M
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
1 (25 bps)
24%$1.00M
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 (50 bps)
21%↘1.0%1h$911.01K
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3 (75 bps)
8%↘2.0%24h$891.88K
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
4 (100 bps)
2.1%↘2.3%24h$888.35K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

FAQ

How many markets are available for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?"?

There are 13 active prediction markets available for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", with $17.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "0 (0 bps)" with $3.0 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 40%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.