US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
35%
No probability
66%
Total volume
$83K
24-hour volume
$57K
Closing date
May 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 35% chance of Yes and 66% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?"?

This market has seen $83K in total trading volume, with $57K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on May 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 35% to 35%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
ACTIVEGeopolitics

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

$83.2K Vol$57.3K 24h$35.2K Liq↘ 0.5% 24h

My Positions

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Resolution Details

Created AtApr 8, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 35% chance of Yes and 66% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?"?

This market has seen $83K in total trading volume, with $57K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on May 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 35% to 35%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.