US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?"?

There are 3 active prediction markets available for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?", with $541K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 22" with $390K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 12%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around May 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTGEOPOLITICS

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

$541.18K Vol$311.72K 24h$163.30K Liq3 mkts
OutcomeBuy
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
April 22
12%↘1.0%24h$389.81K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
April 30
19%↘1.5%24h$74.51K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
May 31
33%↘0.5%24h$76.85K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

How many markets are available for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?"?

There are 3 active prediction markets available for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?", with $541K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 22" with $390K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 12%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around May 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.