Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
11%
No probability
90%
Total volume
$185K
24-hour volume
$83K
Closing date
April 12, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 11% chance of Yes and 90% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?"?

This market has seen $185K in total trading volume, with $83K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 12, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 3 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 8% to 11%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?
ACTIVEGeopolitics

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?

$184.8K Vol$83.2K 24h$28.1K Liq↗ 3.0% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtApr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET

On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 11% chance of Yes and 90% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?"?

This market has seen $185K in total trading volume, with $83K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 12, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 3 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 8% to 11%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.