Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Markets in this Event
Frequently Asked Questions
How many markets are available for "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?"?
There are 6 active prediction markets available for "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?", with $748K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.
What is the most traded market in this event?
The most traded market is "April 10" with $348K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 1%.
When do these markets close?
Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 21, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
