US x Iran ceasefire extended by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markets in this Event
Frequently Asked Questions
How many markets are available for "US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?"?
There are 2 active prediction markets available for "US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?", with $68K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.
What is the most traded market in this event?
The most traded market is "April 21" with $42K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 52%.
When do these markets close?
Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 21, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
