Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
56%
No probability
45%
Total volume
$56K
24-hour volume
$34K
Closing date
April 21, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 56% chance of Yes and 45% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?"?

This market has seen $56K in total trading volume, with $34K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 21, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 20 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 36% to 56%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?
ACTIVEGeopolitics

Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?

$55.6K Vol$34.4K 24h$21.2K Liq↗ 19.5% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtApr 8, 2026, 10:52 AM ET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 56% chance of Yes and 45% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?"?

This market has seen $56K in total trading volume, with $34K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 21, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 20 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 36% to 56%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.