Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?"?

There are 3 active prediction markets available for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?", with $1.6 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 30" with $1.1 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 41%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around June 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTGEOPOLITICS

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

$1.60M Vol$266.72K 24h$79.60K Liq2 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
April 30
40.2%↗0.5%1h↘5.2%24h$1.09M
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
June 30
60.9%↗0.1%1h↘9.2%24h$135.77K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?"?

There are 3 active prediction markets available for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?", with $1.6 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 30" with $1.1 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 41%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around June 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.