Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
0%
No probability
100%
Total volume
$377K
Closing date
June 30, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the result for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
RESOLVEDGeopolitics

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$376.7K Vol
Market closed — no longer accepting trades

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 2, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

FAQ

What was the result for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.