How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"?

There are 6 active prediction markets available for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?", with $708K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "0" with $413K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 39%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around March 31, 2027. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTWEATHER

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

$708.13K Vol$4.14K 24h$19.76K Liq6 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
1
41%$245.96K
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
0
38%↗0.5%1h↘1.0%24h$412.55K
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
2
6.5%↗1.4%1h↗3.4%24h$19.01K
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
4
7.1%↗0.1%1h↘1.1%24h$12.28K
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
5+
2.8%↘0.1%24h$11.55K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

FAQ

How many markets are available for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?"?

There are 6 active prediction markets available for "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?", with $708K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "0" with $413K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 39%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around March 31, 2027. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.