Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
41%
No probability
60%
Total volume
$246K
24-hour volume
$1K
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 41% chance of Yes and 60% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?"?

This market has seen $246K in total trading volume, with $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
ACTIVEWeather

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

$246.0K Vol$1.2K 24h$8.9K Liq

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Resolution Details

Created AtDec 31, 2025, 12:32 PM ET

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 41% chance of Yes and 60% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?"?

This market has seen $246K in total trading volume, with $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.