Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
9%
No probability
92%
Total volume
$276K
24-hour volume
$66
Closing date
June 30, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?"?

Traders currently give this a 9% chance of Yes and 92% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?"?

This market has seen $276K in total trading volume, with $66 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 10% to 9%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
ACTIVEWeather

Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

$276.3K Vol$66 24h$13.4K Liq 1.0% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtDec 4, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?"?

Traders currently give this a 9% chance of Yes and 92% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?"?

This market has seen $276K in total trading volume, with $66 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 10% to 9%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.