Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 70%
- No probability
- 30%
- Total volume
- $690K
- 24-hour volume
- $201K
- Closing date
- December 31, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?"?
Traders currently give this a 70% chance of Yes and 30% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?"?
This market has seen $690K in total trading volume, with $201K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
What is the price trend for this market?
Yes has moved up 2 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 68% to 70%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
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Resolution Details
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".