Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 22%
- No probability
- 78%
- Total volume
- $1.0 million
- 24-hour volume
- $330K
- Closing date
- December 31, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?"?
Traders currently give this a 22% chance of Yes and 78% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?"?
This market has seen $1.0 million in total trading volume, with $330K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
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Resolution Details
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.