Next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets in this Event
- None by June 30 — Yes 4%
- Muhammad Mirbaqiri — Yes 1%
- Mojtaba Khamenei — Yes 9%
- Reza Pahlavi — Yes 1%
- Maryam Rajavi — Yes 0%
- Seyed Hossein Mousavian — Yes 0%
- Navid Shomali — Yes 0%
- Ali Motahari — Yes 0%
- Mostafa Pourmohammadi — Yes 0%
- Masoud Pezeshkian — Yes 0%
- Hassan Rouhani — Yes 1%
- Mohammad Khatami — Yes 0%
- Ali Larijani — Yes 5%
- Alireza Arafi — Yes 22%
- Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi — Yes 0%
- Mohsen Araki — Yes 1%
- Ali Asghar Hejazi — Yes 1%
- Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari — Yes 0%
- Ahmad Khatami — Yes 0%
- Nasir Hosseini — Yes 0%
Frequently Asked Questions
How many markets are available for "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?"?
There are 40 active prediction markets available for "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?", with $5.7 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.
What is the most traded market in this event?
The most traded market is "Alireza Arafi" with $1.0 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 22%.
When do these markets close?
Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Next Supreme Leader of Iran?
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Price History
Markets
| Outcome | Buy |
|---|---|
 Alireza Arafi 22%$1.00M | |
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i 17%$183.63K | |
Hassan Khomeini 14%$247.83K | |
Mojtaba Khamenei 9%$784.50K | |
Sadegh Larijani 8%$162.29K | |
Position abolished 8%$324.49K | |
Ali Larijani 5%$371.74K | |
None by June 30 4%$238.23K | |
Muhammad Mirbaqiri 1%$130.21K | |
Hassan Rouhani 1%$162.26K | |
Reza Pahlavi 1%$208.21K | |
Ali Asghar Hejazi 1%$50.55K | |
Mohsen Araki 1%$109.42K | |
Hashem Hosseini Bushehri 0%$136.15K | |
Mohsen Qomi 0%$89.11K | |
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani 0%$13.74K | |
Abbas Araghchi 0%$13.82K | |
Masoud Pezeshkian 0%$130.39K | |
Mohammad Khatami 0%$91.76K | |
Ahmad Khatami 0%$36.90K | |
Nasir Hosseini 0%$16.25K | |
Mohammad Yasrebi 0%$31.12K | |
Khalil Mobasher Kashani 0%$33.43K | |
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 0%$136.08K | |
Maryam Rajavi 0%$81.49K | |
Seyed Hossein Mousavian 0%$64.37K | |
Ali Motahari 0%$64.29K | |
Mostafa Pourmohammadi 0%$54.52K | |
Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi 0%$75.27K | |
Hassan Shariatmadari 0%$68.82K | |
Massoud Rajavi 0%$80.81K | |
Mustafa Hijri 0%$70.59K | |
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel 0%$59.18K | |
Sadegh Mahsouli 0%$58.98K | |
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 0%$90.64K | |
Ahmad Vahidi 0%$14.01K | |
Navid Shomali 0%$68.74K | |
Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari 0%$44.54K | |
Reza Pirzadeh 0%$85.64K | |
Saeed Jalili 0%$62.42K |