Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
1%
No probability
99%
Total volume
$994K
24-hour volume
$19K
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

This market has seen $994K in total trading volume, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 1% to 1%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
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Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

$994.3K Vol$19.0K 24h$101.3K Liq↘ 0.3% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtSep 29, 2025, 9:23 AM ET

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"?

This market has seen $994K in total trading volume, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 1% to 1%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.