US forces enter Iran by April 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 100%
- No probability
- 0%
- Total volume
- $47.6 million
- 24-hour volume
- $17.1 million
- Closing date
- April 30, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "US forces enter Iran by April 30?"?
Traders currently give this a 100% chance of Yes and 0% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "US forces enter Iran by April 30?"?
This market has seen $47.6 million in total trading volume, with $17.1 million traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
What is the price trend for this market?
Yes has moved up 16 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 84% to 100%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
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Resolution Details
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".