Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
0%
No probability
100%
Total volume
$7.8 million
Closing date
March 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the result for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
RESOLVEDPolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

$7.8M Vol
Market closed — no longer accepting trades

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What was the result for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.