Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?"?

There are 5 active prediction markets available for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?", with $19.6 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "March 31" with $7.8 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 0%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around March 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTPOLITICS

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$19.63M Vol$1.18M 24h$736.39K Liq4 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
April 15
1.6%↗0.1%1h↘0.4%24h$5.34M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
April 30
8%$5.39M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
May 31
16%↘1.0%24h$654.63K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
June 30
17%↗0.5%1h↘0.5%24h$441.72K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?"?

There are 5 active prediction markets available for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?", with $19.6 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "March 31" with $7.8 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 0%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around March 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.