Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
3%
No probability
97%
Total volume
$5.5 million
24-hour volume
$598K
Closing date
April 15, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?"?

Traders currently give this a 3% chance of Yes and 97% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?"?

This market has seen $5.5 million in total trading volume, with $598K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 15, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 3% to 3%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
ACTIVEPolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

$5.5M Vol$598.2K 24h$97.0K Liq↗ 0.4% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?"?

Traders currently give this a 3% chance of Yes and 97% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?"?

This market has seen $5.5 million in total trading volume, with $598K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 15, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 3% to 3%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.