DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
0%
No probability
100%
Closing date
March 21, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the result for "DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.

DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?
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DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 12, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

FAQ

What was the result for "DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.