DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count. The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3. Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
8%
No probability
92%
Total volume
$196K
24-hour volume
$7K
Closing date
April 15, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?"?

Traders currently give this a 8% chance of Yes and 92% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?"?

This market has seen $196K in total trading volume, with $7K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 15, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 8 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 16% to 8%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
ACTIVETech

DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?

$196.0K Vol$7.2K 24h$16.3K Liq↘ 8.5% 24h

My Positions

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 12, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

FAQ

What are the current odds for "DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?"?

Traders currently give this a 8% chance of Yes and 92% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?"?

This market has seen $196K in total trading volume, with $7K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 15, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 8 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 16% to 8%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.