Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 17, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
18%
No probability
83%
Total volume
$139
24-hour volume
$139
Closing date
April 18, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 18% chance of Yes and 83% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?"?

This market has seen $139 in total trading volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 18, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?
ACTIVEPolitics

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?

$139 Vol$139 24h$1.6K Liq

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Resolution Details

Created AtApr 9, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 17, 2026.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 18% chance of Yes and 83% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?"?

This market has seen $139 in total trading volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 18, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.