Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
22%
No probability
78%
Total volume
$6K
24-hour volume
$6K
Closing date
April 30, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?"?

Traders currently give this a 22% chance of Yes and 78% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?"?

This market has seen $6K in total trading volume, with $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 10 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 32% to 22%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
ACTIVEPolitics

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

$6.4K Vol$5.9K 24h$10.2K Liq↘ 10.0% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtApr 9, 2026, 2:07 PM ET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?"?

Traders currently give this a 22% chance of Yes and 78% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?"?

This market has seen $6K in total trading volume, with $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 10 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 32% to 22%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.