Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
10%
No probability
91%
Total volume
$28.5 million
24-hour volume
$221K
Closing date
June 30, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"?

Traders currently give this a 10% chance of Yes and 91% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"?

This market has seen $28.5 million in total trading volume, with $221K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 9% to 10%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
ACTIVEGeopolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

$28.5M Vol$220.5K 24h$472.0K Liq↗ 1.0% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtDec 17, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"?

Traders currently give this a 10% chance of Yes and 91% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"?

This market has seen $28.5 million in total trading volume, with $221K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on June 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 9% to 10%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.