Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
3%
No probability
97%
Total volume
$232K
24-hour volume
$46
Closing date
January 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

Traders currently give this a 3% chance of Yes and 97% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

This market has seen $232K in total trading volume, with $46 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 3% to 3%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
ACTIVECulture

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

$231.9K Vol$46 24h$8.9K Liq 0.1% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtOct 17, 2025, 4:10 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

Traders currently give this a 3% chance of Yes and 97% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

This market has seen $232K in total trading volume, with $46 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 0 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 3% to 3%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.