Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
1%
No probability
99%
Total volume
$17K
24-hour volume
$228
Closing date
January 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?"?

Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?"?

This market has seen $17K in total trading volume, with $228 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?
ACTIVECulture

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?

$16.7K Vol$228 24h$2.5K Liq

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 4, 2026, 12:06 PM ET

If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?"?

Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?"?

This market has seen $17K in total trading volume, with $228 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.