Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
7%
No probability
93%
Total volume
$30K
24-hour volume
$8K
Closing date
April 30, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 7% chance of Yes and 93% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?"?

This market has seen $30K in total trading volume, with $8K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 8% to 7%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?
ACTIVEGeopolitics

Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?

$30.1K Vol$7.8K 24h$20.8K Liq↘ 1.0% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 7% chance of Yes and 93% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?"?

This market has seen $30K in total trading volume, with $8K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 8% to 7%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.