Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees. An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed. Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify. Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment. Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
1%
No probability
99%
Total volume
$61K
24-hour volume
$6K
Closing date
April 14, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?"?

Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?"?

This market has seen $61K in total trading volume, with $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 14, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 0% to 1%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?
ACTIVETech

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

$61.4K Vol$5.7K 24h$10.4K Liq↗ 0.5% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtMar 23, 2026, 11:02 AM ET

Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?"?

Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?"?

This market has seen $61K in total trading volume, with $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 14, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 0% to 1%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.