Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use

Current Market Data

Yes probability
52%
No probability
49%
Total volume
$1.8 million
24-hour volume
$2K
Closing date
July 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?"?

Traders currently give this a 52% chance of Yes and 49% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?"?

This market has seen $1.8 million in total trading volume, with $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on July 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
ACTIVECulture

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

$1.8M Vol$2.2K 24h$102.4K Liq

My Positions

Loading orderbook...
Loading trades...

Market Talks

Resolution Details

Created AtMay 2, 2025, 11:22 AM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?"?

Traders currently give this a 52% chance of Yes and 49% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?"?

This market has seen $1.8 million in total trading volume, with $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on July 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.