Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"?

There are 1 active prediction market available for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?", with $5.7 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?" with $5.7 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 20%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTECONOMY

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

$5.74M Vol$392.67K 24h$250.20K Liq

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?"?

There are 1 active prediction market available for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?", with $5.7 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?" with $5.7 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 20%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.