Military action against Iran ends on...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Military action against Iran ends on...?"?

There are 32 active prediction markets available for "Military action against Iran ends on...?", with $5.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 9" with $519K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 98%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Military action against Iran ends on...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTPOLITICSDISPUTED

Military action against Iran ends on...?

$5.83M Vol$4.42M 24h$679.53K Liq23 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?
April 9
97.6%↗0.4%1h↗4.8%24h$518.72K
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?
April 10
0.5%↗0.1%1h↘0.8%24h$482.60K
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?
Military action through April 30
0.2%↗0.1%1h↘2.3%24h$431.33K
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?
April 13
0.2%↗0.1%1h↘0.4%24h$292.15K
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?
April 14
0.2%↘0.4%24h$262.72K

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Military action against Iran ends on...?"?

There are 32 active prediction markets available for "Military action against Iran ends on...?", with $5.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 9" with $519K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 98%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Military action against Iran ends on...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.