Military action against Iran ends by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "Military action against Iran ends by...?"?

There are 30 active prediction markets available for "Military action against Iran ends by...?", with $31.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 17" with $28.8 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 100%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Military action against Iran ends by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
CLOSEDGEOPOLITICS

Military action against Iran ends by...?

$31.80M Vol$0.00 24h$0.00 Liq
OutcomeVolumeResult
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?
April 9
$237.47KYes
Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?
April 10
$16.45KYes
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
April 11
$32.86KYes
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
April 12
$81.60KYes
Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?
April 13
$93.18KYes

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

How many markets are available for "Military action against Iran ends by...?"?

There are 30 active prediction markets available for "Military action against Iran ends by...?", with $31.8 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "April 17" with $28.8 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 100%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around April 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Military action against Iran ends by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.