Iran leadership change by...? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets in this Event
Frequently Asked Questions
How many markets are available for "Iran leadership change by...?"?
There are 4 active prediction markets available for "Iran leadership change by...?", with $8.1 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.
What is the most traded market in this event?
The most traded market is "March 13" with $5.5 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 0%.
When do these markets close?
Markets in this event are scheduled to close around December 31, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Iran leadership change by...?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Iran leadership change by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets
| Outcome | Buy |
|---|---|
December 31 62%$429.52K | |
April 30 35%$711.31K | |
March 31 14%$1.39M | |
March 13 0%$5.54M |