How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Markets in this Event

Frequently Asked Questions

How many markets are available for "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?"?

There are 8 active prediction markets available for "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?", with $56K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "<950" with $21K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 11%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around January 10, 2027. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Polymarket
HOTWEATHER

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

$55.71K Vol$2.89K 24h$12.09K Liq8 mkts
OutcomeBuy
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
1250+
25%↘1.0%1h↘2.5%24h$13.17K
Will 1050 to 1099 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
1050–1099
15%↗1.0%24h$2.90K
Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
<950
12%↘0.5%24h$21.00K
Will 1000 to 1049 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
1000–1049
4%$957.85
Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
1100–1149
9.8%↘0.5%24h$811.80

Market Talks

Resolution Details

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

FAQ

How many markets are available for "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?"?

There are 8 active prediction markets available for "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?", with $56K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.

What is the most traded market in this event?

The most traded market is "<950" with $21K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 11%.

When do these markets close?

Markets in this event are scheduled to close around January 10, 2027. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.

How do prediction markets work?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.