Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 99%
- No probability
- 1%
- Total volume
- $340K
- 24-hour volume
- $184K
- Closing date
- March 10, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?"?
Traders currently give this a 99% chance of Yes and 1% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?"?
This market has seen $340K in total trading volume, with $184K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on March 10, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?
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Resolution Details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".