Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 23%
- No probability
- 78%
- Total volume
- $272K
- 24-hour volume
- $54K
- Closing date
- December 31, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?
Traders currently give this a 23% chance of Yes and 78% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?
This market has seen $272K in total trading volume, with $54K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
What is the price trend for this market?
Yes has moved down 3 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 26% to 23%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Resolution Details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".