Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
4%
No probability
96%
Total volume
$164K
24-hour volume
$572
Closing date
January 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?"?

Traders currently give this a 4% chance of Yes and 96% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?"?

This market has seen $164K in total trading volume, with $572 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 2 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 6% to 4%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
ACTIVECulture

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

$164.2K Vol$572 24h$5.2K Liq 1.7% 24h

My Positions

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Resolution Details

Created AtOct 17, 2025, 4:10 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?"?

Traders currently give this a 4% chance of Yes and 96% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?"?

This market has seen $164K in total trading volume, with $572 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 2 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 6% to 4%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.