Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 1%
- No probability
- 99%
- Total volume
- $619K
- 24-hour volume
- $540K
- Closing date
- March 31, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?"?
Traders currently give this a 1% chance of Yes and 99% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?"?
This market has seen $619K in total trading volume, with $540K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on March 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?
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Resolution Details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".