Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 76%
- No probability
- 25%
- Total volume
- $397K
- 24-hour volume
- $254K
- Closing date
- March 31, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?"?
Traders currently give this a 76% chance of Yes and 25% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?"?
This market has seen $397K in total trading volume, with $254K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on March 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
What is the price trend for this market?
Yes has moved down 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 77% to 76%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
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Resolution Details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".