Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Current Market Data
- Yes probability
- 69%
- No probability
- 32%
- Total volume
- $157K
- 24-hour volume
- $64K
- Closing date
- March 31, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?"?
Traders currently give this a 69% chance of Yes and 32% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
How much has been traded on "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?"?
This market has seen $157K in total trading volume, with $64K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.
When does this market close?
This market is scheduled to close on March 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.
How do prediction market odds work?
Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
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Resolution Details
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".